Brace for more AVAX dilution

Avalanche price came under intense pressure ahead of the token unlock event scheduled for Friday. The AVAX token was trading at $10 on Friday, a few points above this week’s low of $9.78. It has dropped by more than 37% from the highest level in July.

AVAX token unlocks

Avalanche, the Ethereum alternative, will be in the spotlight on Friday as the developers are set to unlock millions of tokens to the market. Precisely, they are set to unlock more than 9.7 million tokens that are valued at over $95 million. These tokens represent about 2% of the network.

Token unlocks are popular features in the crypto industry. They happen in line with a network’s tokenomics, which set aside the vesting process. In Avalanche’s case, the vesting process will end in July 2030.

According to TokenUnlocks, there are 380 million tokens that are currently in circulation with 339 million being locked. As a result, the current market cap of all unlocked AVAX tokens stands at $3.45 billion while the diluted cap is over $7.2 billion. Therefore, AVAX holders can anticipate more dilutions in the coming years.

The challenge for Avalanche is that its ecosystem is not growing. For example, data compiled by DeFi Llama shows that the Avalanche ecosystem has over 151 million in total value locked (TVL). At its peak, it had over 362 million tokens in the market.

In dollar terms, Avalanche has a TVL of about $1 billion, with the biggest dApps being Wonderland, AAVE, Benqi, GMX, and Trader Joe.

Avalanche price forecast

The 4H chart shows that the AVAX crypto price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It recently moved below the important support level at $12.10, the lowest level on June 18th.

Avalanche price has dropped below the 50-day moving average. It is now hovering at the lowest swing on June 10th. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have moved to the oversold level.

Therefore, the outlook for the token is bearish, with the next psychological level to watch being $8. The stop-loss of this trade will be at $10.50.